StormNet

There is potential for a significant tornado outbreak in central and N Ohio and extreme NW Pennsylvania tomorrow (Friday 07 May). Model agreement is somewhat poor regarding timing of a powerful low pressure system that will move from the Midwest into the southern Great Lakes region Friday afternoon and evening, but forecaster consensus seems to be that the NAM is a little slow, and the GFS is a little fast.

Taking this into account, it would appear that an area of excellent shear, combined with moderate instability (1,500-2,500j/kg) will exist in central Ohio, in the general vicinity of Columbus by 18z Friday. Given the current model solutions, and the SPC including a 45% probabilistic outlook, a MDT RISK would not be surprising in this area.

Lapse rates will be quite impressive, and an 'inverted v' sounding is apparent on both models until later in the evening. This would indicate that in addition to the potential for supercells and tornadoes, large hail and high winds are also likely in Central Ohio, particularly with any more organized storm structures that become established. Bowing segments seem to be the most likely, particularly as the evening progresses.

Chase 1 and Chase 5 will be in the field, and may be streaming if things get interesting. Additional units may also be in the field, so stay tuned for more updates!

 There has been much discussion and speculation regarding El Niño's possible impact on this year's storm season. As with any weather/climate forecasting beyond the ~14 day window the long range models give us, much of this is speculation based on past El Niño years, the experience of seasoned chasers and meteorologists, and the archive of weather data available from the past.

 I've been doing a great deal of reading on this subject the last few weeks, and there are a number of factors I believe are going to have an impact on the season. First, the unusually harsh winter across the eastern two thirds of the US. The record snowfalls across many areas has led to an abundance of cold air and locally available moisture at this point. It has also acted to quell normally active weather across the Southeast US.

 The second factor, and perhaps most influential (and most controversial) is the presence of a strong El Niño. This weather pattern usually means different things for different regions, so I'm going to break it up into the Southeast and Gulf Coast, New England and the Great Lakes, and the Great Plains and Upper Midwest.

 The Southeast and Gulf Coast region are typically quite active this time of year. In 6 years of chasing Georgia and Alabama, I saw an average of one 'chase worthy' event a week starting February 15th and ending March 31st. This year, there were none in February, and only one so far in March. This can be attributed to two factors. First, the harsh winter has ensured that the Gulf of Mexico is unusually cool this year, limiting its ability to transport warm and moist air north. Secondly, is the presence of a synoptic scale pattern called Split Flow. In this  pattern, a high pressure center becomes entrenched over the Pacific Northwest. The jet stream then splits, with half of it flowing north into Canada to get around the high, and half diving south, beneath the high into the Desert Southwest and even Mexico. As can be seen on a Jet Stream map today, this results in the jet lying well south of its normal range across the northern Gulf Coast region, and instead, puts it over the Gulf itself and central Florida. This pattern acts to prevent moisture return north, and also keeps temperatures in those areas cooler. It also keeps the better sheared environments over water, not inland.

 For the Southeast, this could mean a late start to the season. The jet stream won't stay that far south forever. It will eventually begin its spring trek north. My concern is that by the time it starts to shift, it could be moving across a far warmer airmass than it typically does. This could result in the great early spring, 'cold core' type dynamics Georgia usually sees this time of year suddenly aligning with an airmass in the 80s. Not the upper 60s. This could result in a brief (and late) but violent season for the Gulf region.

 Chase 5 (formerly Chase 15) is in the midst of a major vehicle rebuild. I had a decent setup in the Tundra last year, but I was unhappy with how disorganized things got during a chase, and how frequently problems arose out of poor organization. There were also occasional equipment failures and malfunctions cause by power supply issues and interference.

 The Tundra has been stripped back down to stock, and is being reconstructed with all new (largely custom made) hardware. A whole new electrical system using careful RF filtering on all hardware will cut down on interference.  Complete integration of the inverter, emergency lighting, both laptop power supplies, all radios, and hopefully the video camera power supplies as well will ensure I never have to worry about cigarette lighter plugs or a million individual power leads tangled up on the floor.

 A new primary laptop and video streaming laptop will improve reliability and will also hopefully cut down on the amount of overload my poor little netbook suffered. It should improve stream reliability and quality as well.

 So far, fog lights have been installed, the 60 amp DC bus has been run into the cab, and emergency lights have been installed. Everything else is awaiting the arrival of the parts for a new custom designed laptop bracket from the machine shop, and a large batch of filter capacitors and ferrite chokes. Many many hours of work still remain, but it should be a hell of a package once its finished later this month! I'll be posting photos here every couple of days of the work as it progresses.